Escalating Tensions: Impending Water War between Iran and Afghanistan

Is a War Brewing in the Middle East Over Water? Tensions Rise Between Iran and Afghanistan

The possibility of an imminent war in the Middle East is currently a hot topic of international discussion. Speculation suggests that a small-scale conflict between Iran and Afghanistan may be on the horizon, with water scarcity emerging as a crucial underlying factor.

Incidents of fighting between Iranian and Taliban troops near the Afghan border have been reported, and this is no ordinary skirmish. Intense gunfire exchanges have taken place, resulting in casualties on both sides. While no civilian deaths have been reported so far, the situation remains highly volatile, and the potential for further escalation cannot be ruled out.

The border area is experiencing heightened tension, evident from the online discussions and shared videos capturing the Taliban's deployment of defense equipment along the Iranian border, left behind by the USA in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, numerous European news outlets have been oddly jubilant over Iran's predicament. Their enthusiasm stems from Iran's alleged supply of suicide drones and defense equipment to Russia for potential use in an attack on Ukraine. Consequently, many Europeans view the clash between the Taliban and Iran as a fitting consequence.

Geopolitical analysts on social media are noting the intriguing timing of the Taliban's actions. They speculate that the water issue arose in response to Iran's support for Russia, prompting the Taliban to escalate tensions by opening fire. It is highly likely that Iran will not remain silent and will retaliate in a manner that may impact Afghanistan's dams.

Before delving further, let's take a quick quiz: Who was the last King of Afghanistan, and when did he pass away? Feel free to share your answer in the comments.

Now, turning our attention to the two countries in question: Afghanistan and Iran. Afghanistan has a population of around 40 million, while Iran's population stands at approximately 80-90 million. There is a substantial disparity in their military capabilities.

Although the USA may have left considerable defense hardware in Afghanistan, Iran still possesses considerable power. It should not be underestimated. Iran is also on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. However, if there is any country in the world seemingly unafraid of such weaponry, it would be Afghanistan. As they feel several countries had already bombed their territory in the past so what would be different would happen by nuking them. However, the main bone of contention lies in the Helmand River, which serves as a source of conflict between Afghanistan and Iran.

The Helmand River is of utmost importance to Afghanistan as the largest river in the country. It originates from Kabul and flows directly into Iran, providing crucial irrigation and drinking water. For Iran, a country with few rivers, the water from the Helmand River is indispensable. But does Afghanistan disrupt Iran's access to water? Unfortunately, this has been happening for many years. While the problem was not as severe during non-Taliban Afghan governments, it has worsened since their return to power. The Taliban has aggressively interfered with water flow, exacerbating the water crisis for Iranians. Many people have been forced to abandon their villages and seek refuge elsewhere due to the scarcity of this vital resource.

You may wonder how Afghanistan manages to restrict Iran's water supply. The answer lies in the numerous dams they possess, many of which were constructed in the 1950s. Dams such as the Kajaki Dam and the Grishk Dam give Afghanistan control over water flow. When Afghanistan requires more water, they prioritize their own needs, disregarding previous treaties and agreements, thus leaving Iran with nothing. It is worth mentioning that 270 cities in Iran are currently grappling with critical water shortages.

Iran's government has labeled these shortages as far from normal. Water availability varies greatly, with some areas receiving water for just a couple of hours every two weeks or facing extended periods without water. Understandably, there is tremendous frustration among the Iranian population. The Taliban regime's refusal to engage in meaningful dialogue and their provocative actions have further heightened tensions. The Taliban's deployment of defense equipment along the border sends a clear message to Iran that they no longer adhere to previous treaties and assert their right to use the water for themselves rather than distributing it equitably. Consequently, journalists reporting from Afghanistan express concerns that Iran might retaliate by targeting Afghan dams, including the recently inaugurated Kamal Khan Dam located near the border.

The construction of the Kamal Khan Dam has stirred considerable anger in Iran, as it threatens to cut off its water supply if Afghanistan chooses to withhold it. The dam's story is intriguing, as it dates back to the 1950s and involved extensive efforts, including assistance from the US. Unfortunately, many workers and engineers lost their lives during its construction. However, after numerous challenges, the dam was eventually completed.

Discussions are underway among Iranians, contemplating possible retaliatory actions. They argue that if countries like Pakistan can conduct airstrikes on Afghanistan and the US can carry out military operations in the region, why should Iran not push the Taliban back and destroy their dams, ensuring the free flow of water to Iran?

Consequently, the ongoing skirmishes near the Iran-Afghanistan border are being characterized as a water war. The intensity of this conflict is alarming, as it could potentially impact the entire region due to the significant size of both countries involved. A full-scale war over water, accompanied by territorial capture, would have grave implications not only for Afghanistan and Iran but for the entire region. Additionally, this conflict could also affect the interests of India and China, both of which have investments in the region, potentially disrupting present and future projects.

While the reports of recent hostilities near the Iran-Afghanistan border serve as a warning sign, the prospect of a full-scale war is likely to materialize within the next two to three years due to worsening water shortages, rising temperatures, and the drying of lakes and ponds. The dire scarcity of water has the potential to drive nations to war, and Iran and Afghanistan may set a precedent as the first countries to engage in armed conflict over this precious resource in the near future.

Do let us know what do you think about this situation and can it be resolvable with any solutions?